Is the party over?

From a quantitative perspective, it looks like it might be. At this time, however, I’d still be hesitant to stick a fork in the rally quite yet. Here’s why...

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The window of opportunity is still wide open.

When the markets were in a state of confusion last fall, we tried to keep our heads level and focus on the future.

One of the areas we inevitably turned to was agriculture:

This is a pretty simple one. The world's population is growing and the world's available farmland is not. The question here is not if there will be a big payoff, but when.

Of course, the whole investment world knew that. And it's why agriculture stocks made such a big run between 2006 and 2008.

The good news is, however, the run in agriculture is far from over. In fact, it looks like agriculture stocks are just starting to get attention again. It really looks like the world is finally starting to see the "agtastrophe" approaching and now is a great time to get on board. Here's why.

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The last time this happened investors made 10 to 20 times their money.

Now an opportunity for similar gains is fast approaching.

Let’s start at the beginning though. Six years ago no one - and I mean no one - wanted to buy steel stocks.

The industry was reeling. The Chinese were making heavy inroads into the U.S. steel market. They were able to deliver the same product as U.S. steelmakers at a much lower cost. Even some pretty steep protective tariffs enacted the year before weren’t able to save the industry.

It was ugly and it looked like the domestic steel industry was dead. A few innovative companies, however, weren’t about to go under without a fight.

When their backs were against the wall, it didn’t take long for companies like Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) to figure out a way to compete in the global steel industry. They did it by changing from giant mega-mills to much more flexible (and profitable) mini-mills.

They innovated their way to success. And when the crisis did pass, they were one of the few left standing. As a result, they had an even bigger share of the domestic steel market than they did before. And investors who were able to spot the success of these new business models were able to make as much 10 to 20 times their money, in five or six years time.

Now it’s looking like it’s happening all over again. This time, it’s in this beaten down industry.

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Most investors are still nervous.

The S&P 500 has reached its highest point since September 2008. After that time though, it went on to fall 26% in two months.

Earnings season is in full swing. And with each report we see top line revenues and bottom line earnings are not rebounding nearly as fast as stocks have.

The housing market is still proving troublesome for banks too. Aside from the shadow inventory, rising foreclosures, and the expiration of the $8,000 subsidy for home buyers, bank right-offs are still on the rise.

Then there’s unemployment, tax hikes, etc.

Basically, there’s not too much to be excited about from a fundamental perspective.

That’s why I recommend making three moves now. And whether the market continues to go higher and gloss right over the real risk in this market or we’re really at the euphoric top, you won’t regret taking the next few minutes to do these today.

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It's a tough time to be looking for contrarian opportunities.

Almost every sector has done exceptionally well.

Car rental companies have delivered 500%+ returns from their lows. Banks and real estate stocks just go higher and higher. Oil's inching closer to $80 a barrel. Natural gas has recovered nicely from its summer beating.

Even long-time contrarian standbys like gold and silver stocks have, in many cases, bounced back to their 2008 highs.

The breadth of the rally has been exceptional. The run over the last six months has pushed the S&P 500 P/E ratio from below 15 in March to above 19 (as tracked by Robert Shiller's inflation adjusted, 10 year average earnings model). Also, the dividend yield for the S&P 500 sits at a low 2.28%. The index's yield has historically hit 6% or higher at true stock market bottoms.

Basically, the market is overvalued. Frankly, it has been for more than 20 years.

It will change – eventually. That doesn't mean there's no opportunity. As in all type of markets, bull or bear, there will always be safety and opportunity in value stocks. The more out of favor the sector or stock, the lower the downside risk and the greater the upside potential.

But here's the problem. After such a meteoric rise in the markets, are there any true values really left? Are there any sectors or stocks which haven’t done well in this rally?

Well, all I can tell you is there aren't many. But there is one that, due to an improbable one-time event, has barely joined in this rally at all. Yet still offers plenty of opportunity in the months ahead as well as exceptional opportunity in the next decade. And a few days ago we got the perfect "buy" signal from the markets...

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